Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 17.581674 20.052155 22.709870 25.777305 29.215580 32.946154 37.295787
2025-02-09 13.841459 17.179198 21.044617 25.834639 31.592489 38.271284 46.584370
2025-02-16 11.655311 15.282314 19.687179 25.398634 32.572943 41.247812 52.488818
2025-02-23 10.220862 14.071851 18.949461 25.530103 34.118418 44.881590 59.317089
2025-03-02 9.183272 13.191907 18.457345 25.807894 35.719056 48.522454 66.198978
2025-03-09 8.258972 12.340381 17.884422 25.869831 36.961481 51.688283 72.557060
2025-03-16 7.386345 11.453890 17.156070 25.612622 37.686717 54.128692 77.991899
2025-03-23 6.789327 10.893985 16.816927 25.837833 39.043294 57.440802 84.721504
2025-03-30 6.431397 10.647160 16.892759 26.637406 41.227146 61.973619 93.333436
2025-04-06 5.852250 10.001644 16.315443 26.409517 41.868284 64.305403 98.875521
2025-04-13 5.095278 9.001593 15.112797 25.132084 40.837405 64.115196 100.686491
2025-04-20 4.835969 8.785348 15.109457 25.698059 42.619734 68.139164 108.881810
2025-04-27 4.599119 8.594046 15.142829 26.341152 44.585948 72.579534 117.990028
2025-05-04 4.226445 8.135899 14.704329 26.186544 45.273575 75.088134 124.255759
2025-05-11 3.855521 7.643896 14.165703 25.816359 45.568425 76.965227 129.578309
2025-05-18 3.602463 7.341335 13.925252 25.925430 46.642734 80.106308 137.011579
2025-05-25 3.401141 7.115662 13.799265 26.215479 48.021994 83.781153 145.433854
2025-06-01 3.182613 6.836680 13.555060 26.275450 49.000502 86.827960 152.940653
2025-06-08 2.938591 6.484970 13.150225 26.015549 49.398729 88.912420 158.922154
2025-06-15 2.780524 6.290280 13.021043 26.243637 50.656001 92.476792 167.496388
2025-06-22 2.706702 6.261357 13.202531 27.054681 52.988939 97.959483 179.517772
2025-06-29 2.513717 5.965217 12.845363 26.823520 53.411059 100.151180 185.972080
2025-07-06 2.219658 5.424270 11.965054 25.527922 51.794066 98.692955 186.016310